Distribution Transformers: Preparing for Growth

Release time: 2025-08-31 15:01:24

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with the Office of Electricity (OE), has released a report that examines the number of transformers in the United States versus capacity, the lifespan of current transformers, and how demand for transformers is likely to grow in the coming years. The report, Distribution Transformer Demand: Understanding Demand, Drivers, and Management Strategies in 2050, provides national-level estimates to help manufacturers and utilities assess how many transformers are needed in the United States and how to effectively manage that demand.
The study points out that there are two main drivers of transformer demand growth: new user demand and the aging of existing transformers. The reason for the demand growth brought by new users is very clear. With regard to transformer age, the report States, "NREL estimates that there are between 60 million and 80 million distribution transformers in operation in the United States, with a capacity in the range of 25 to 35 teravolt-amperes (or more than 25 billion to 35 billion kilowatts)." About 55% of these transformers have been in service for more than 33 years-close to the end of their operational life. More than half of the transformers in the United States are too old to operate reliably and are at risk of failure. Therefore, not only new transformers need to be manufactured, but also aging transformers need to be replaced. As the report States: "We expect asset aging and increased load demand to accelerate asset failure rates, particularly after 2030."
The report also found that current preparations are inadequate to meet the growing demand for distribution transformers. "The models show that the annual growth in capacity requirements will significantly exceed the growth in the number of transformers required." Utilities need to expand the capacity of existing transformers and increase the number of transformers available. Frequent extreme weather events make pole-mounted transformers more vulnerable to damage, which promotes the development of ground-mounted (box-type) distribution transformers. This shift will further increase the demand for box-type transformers. In addition, encouraging users to charge electric vehicle during off-peak hours, such as late at night or early in the morning, can help extend the life of transformers that power these vehicles.
NREL's collaboration with the Office of Power is ongoing, and NREL will continue to refine estimates based on new industry data and analyze different demand scenarios. This published report provides key data that not only sheds light on current challenges, but also supports the development of strategies to effectively address them.

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